作者  test520 (很多事講天份的)                                   看板  Stock
 標題  [心得] test520之初級勝率論
 時間  Sun Jan 17 16:34:32 2010
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 有一位板友問我的問題,我把回答的結果供大家參考

 (問題)
                                                                               
:       您好碰巧看到您「白手起家小散戶」的文章。前年因為家人炒股失敗,眼
:   看著父母親千萬的積蓄一掃而盡,讓不會股票的我記起教訓,想好好認識股票;
:   最近才存點錢想開始進入股市,恰巧看到您「白手起家小散戶」這篇文章,我
:   想您應該非常懂散戶的心理與心情,所以想問問過來人的您:對於我這樣的新
:   手,該如何開始做功課?生手是該走短線還是放長比較妥當?
:       所存的三十萬,都被親戚(也是散戶)叫我去買中鋼了,但是也不知道該如
:   何面對股價的波動,可以打擾您詢問一下嗎?謝謝您。
                                                                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           
                                                                                
    (回答)
                                                                               
    對於我"個人"而言,我能在股市獲利最大的原因不在於我很神不在於我很厲害
                                                                               
    那些都是表面上,最重要的因素在於我在一開始賠錢的八年中
                                                                               
    每天都在關注股市,累積交易的次數可能上千次
                                                                               
    這樣長期下來所累積的"經驗"讓我的直覺變的靈敏
                                                                               
                                                                               
    以機率來說,用射飛鏢或擲銅板的方式來操作股票,賺錢賠錢的機率各五成
                                                                               
    也就是十次中會做對五次做錯五次,但如果扣掉交易成本後一定是賠錢
                                                                               
    以上的操作法就叫做"猜",我想絕大多數新手一開始都是這樣
                                                                               
                                                                               
    我的經驗讓我在盤中看到一些指數或個股的變化
                                                                               
    或多或少能抓出一些個股,將過去印象中類似股票的後續走勢套用之
                                                                               
    因此讓我操作這些股票時看對的機率提升到七成以上
                                                                               
    長期下來只要能維持這樣的勝率那必定能賺錢了
                                                                               
                                                                               
    我檢討過我之前八年賠錢最大的問題在於死抱不停損
                                                                               
    一檔股票買300塊跌到30塊還不賣,最後停損在8塊,想當然慘烈無比
                                                                               
    我相信有非常多人都是犯這項毛病而在股海中大賠
                                                                               
    但為何大多數人卻容易犯了這項錯誤呢?
                                                                               
    我找出了答案,答案就是大多數人對自己"沒有信心"
                                                                               
    一般人怕停損了這檔就馬上反彈,或停損了換別檔卻接手繼續跌
                                                                               
    表面上看很有道理,說穿了就是自己都認為自己功力很差
                                                                               
    試想,一個功力很差的人有可能在股市中賺錢嗎?
                                                                               
                                                                               
    假設我們擁有七成勝率,攤開來講就是做十次七勝三敗
                                                                               
    如果有一檔股票我們套牢了,那也只是三敗中的其中一敗
                                                                               
    那停損掉根本就不是什麼太痛的事情,因為也許下一檔馬上就反敗為勝了
                                                                               
    至於停損如何抓?
                                                                               
    假設一檔股票買100元,現在跌到90元
                                                                               
    我的方法是,假設"我的成本是80元",剩下的就用平常抓停利點的操作方式即可
                                                                               
    其實人的心理面才是最難戰勝的,說服自己停損賣很難我知道
                                                                               
    所以我用這個方法來麻醉我的心理面,我們要切記一點
                                                                               
    "少輸為贏"絕對是股海"長久生存"的最高指導原則
                                                                               
                                                                               
    這時一定有人想問,要如何才能擁有七成勝率?
                                                                               
    這個答案在每個人身上都會不同,如果要問我的答案是什麼
                                                                               
    1.時間
                                                                               
    2.熱誠
                                                                               
    3.執著
                                                                               
    先想想自己願不願意花費巨大的時間研究股票
                                                                               
    郭台銘現在很有錢很風光,但他過去也犧牲了很多大多數人都能擁有的東西
                                                                               
                                                                               
    這裡有個分水嶺,以上所說的比較適用於想獲取高報酬率的人
                                                                               
    如果要我推薦穩定的投資,我是覺得定期定額買0050是個不錯的選擇

                                                                               
    因為0050應該會是台灣最後一支倒掉的股票,買0050放到80歲要賺一大筆沒問題的
                                                                               
    買0050也許會賺的沒有高風險者多,但至少不用那麼"累"
                                                                               
    賺錢多寡當然會跟付出的心力成正比
                                                                               
                                                                               
    最後是想提升勝率有沒有什麼方法?
                                                                               
    這裡我提供一些我曾經做過的,在交易方面新手會怕的話就用少量試單吧
                                                                               
    1.交易
                                                                               
      有交易才有經驗值,把成功與失敗的交易將自己所認為的原因記下來下次避免再犯
                                                                               
    2.看新聞
                                                                               
      財經新聞跟報紙有空就看,順便練習解讀,有些消息是利多出盡有些是利空出盡
                                                                               
    3.看K線圖
                                                                               
      有些股票K線圖有類似走勢,看100支K線圖能讓1支猜中走勢的機率提高就賺了

                                                                               
    4.看投顧節目
                                                                               
      這並不是叫大家去追蓋牌飆股,看節目好處是能認識各種不同類型的股票
                                                                               
    5.基本面要注意
                                                                               
      一些簡單的營收還有獲利多少要注意一下,不能只看狗而不管主人了
                                                                               
                                                                               
    總結就是,股票千變萬化,每分鐘都在變
                                                                               
    所以不可能一招半式打遍天下,還是要隨時升級自己的操作方法
                                                                               
    股票絕不是不勞而獲的事情,股票是一種長期抗戰,撐越久的才會是最後贏家
                                                                               

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