作者  test520 (投對胎才是王道)                                   看板  Stock
 標題  [其他] test520股市投資(投機)回憶錄
 時間  Mon Feb 18 22:00:04 2013
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這篇我的股市投資(投機)回憶錄,因為是隨筆寫的,所以文筆可能會看起來不夠精
                                                                               
彩,先請多多包涵啦~~~
                                                                               
我高中開始接觸股市,到現在也十幾年了,算是一段不短的日子,所以我想把這段
                                                                               
過程紀錄下來給各位參考。我的股海生涯基本上分兩階段,前期1997至2005為虧損
                                                                               
階段,2005之後才開始賺錢。
                                                                               
                                                                               
                                                                               
(1997至2005)
                                                                               
                                                                               
我最剛開始做股票的時候是高三(1997),當時是因為親戚在玩,剛好我從小對數字
                                                                               
就很有興趣,所以連帶的也很喜歡錢,之後就把小時候累積的壓歲錢大約12萬拿出
                                                                               
來操作,那時是電子股剛掘起的黃金時期,隨便買支電子股都能賺到錢,指數在當
                                                                               
年還一度攻上萬點,我也因此第一次體驗到了股票大漲的魅力。
                                                                               
                                                                               
上了大學後又凹了父母贊助22萬本金,所以本金總共34萬,到大二的時候(1999)行
                                                                               
情來了,當時新推出一種商品叫做權證,反正就是以小搏大很適合資金小的人,然
                                                                               
後我記得當時股市一路走多上萬點,我隨便亂買個連電權證就給我狂飆,後來又買
                                                                               
了華薪權證也是莫名奇妙就大漲,完全不用看什麼基本面技術面,等到上了萬點時
                                                                               
我的資金已經變成100萬,在學生時代有100萬算屌的了,那時跟同學去吃我家牛排
                                                                               
我都點最貴的耍闊XD。
                                                                               
                                                                               
可惜好景不常,後來就碰到了網路泡沫(2001),股市一洩千里,當時也沒什麼警覺
                                                                               
心,想當然就開始賠錢了,後來還買了光碟片的精碟當投資,在那個年代光碟片曾
                                                                               
經非常風光過,所以想說跌多了就買來放長期,沒想到越放越便宜,最後停損在個
                                                                               
位數價錢(現在下市了),後來不甘心又去買同樣跌的很慘的博達(現在也下市了),
                                                                               
想說從300多塊跌到10幾塊很便宜了,沒想到後來又爆地雷Orz,黯然追殺跌停板後
                                                                               
總算賣掉,基本上就是非常不順,後來我的資金一路縮水到2005年四月底時只剩下
                                                                               
14萬。
                                                                               
                                                                               
手上的股票市值剩下14萬時,我曾經好幾個月沒看盤了,當時認為我應該跟股票無
                                                                               
緣吧,畢竟進入股市已經八年,也投注不少時間與心力,但換來的卻是賠賠賠賠賠
                                                                               
,好像也該是死心的時候了......但有時人生的轉捩點就是會發生在自己想都沒想
                                                                               
過的時間點上(真的很神奇),那時是我剛進入職場的第一年。
                                                                               
                                                                               
到了五月之後手上持股總算跌深反彈了,我似乎開始從中悟出了一些漲跌的道理,
                                                                               
就試著去抓手上股票跌深反彈的高點,沒想到還真的被我抓到然後出場,這時資金
                                                                               
回升到19萬,當時很開心,信心也有點回來了,然後開始看第四台的投顧節目,想
                                                                               
說錢那麼少不如來玩投機股,接著就過著殺進殺出的日子一段時間,基本上還算順
                                                                               
利,到年底時資金上升到25萬。
                                                                               
                                                                               
(2006)
                                                                               
                                                                               
2006年可以說是台股另一個高峰的起始,因為2007年有漲到9859點相信大家都知道
                                                                               
,拜多頭所賜,我的績效也從2006年開始大幅好轉,當時玩的股票都是一些小型電
                                                                               
子低價股,像什麼環顆、利碟(現在改名新利紅)等等,那時的小型電子低價股活蹦
                                                                               
亂跳,跟近期的生技股很像,上下波動很大,不但有價差還可以來回操作,當時資
                                                                               
金25萬真的也不多,每次進場都是全押,而且心態都是不怕死,想說輸光就算了,
                                                                               
25萬只要工作半年多就有了,也因為這種心態(剛好行情也很好),配合上當時我自
                                                                               
己領悟出來的小型股波動價差投機法(那時候這招勝率很高,但現在失效了),所以
                                                                               
資金上升的很快,到年底資金已經來到了60萬。(該年整體報酬率140%)
                                                                               
                                                                               
該年整體報酬率算法為(年底資金-前一年年底資金)/前一年年底資金
                                                                               
                                                                               
(2007)
                                                                               
                                                                               
2007年算是電子股的高潮年,非常非常多的電子股高點都出現在2007年,那時玩電
                                                                               
子股的又是一樣亂買亂賺(俗稱猴子射飛鏢盤),漲一倍的股票多到數不清,當時我
                                                                               
主要獲利的股票有利碟(現在改名新利紅)、佶憂等等,而且上下轉折我也有抓到,
                                                                               
反正就是高賣低買來回操作,資金在七月指數攻上9807點時,來到了200萬。
                                                                               
                                                                               
關鍵來了!
                                                                               
                                                                               
這時候美國爆發次貸危機,但台股太熱了有些股票還是意猶未盡的在噴,因為我以
                                                                               
前有網路泡沫慘賠的經驗,所以警覺心非常的高,不但出清持股還去放空當時激情
                                                                               
到不行的IC設計股聯楊,果然我空完就連兩天跌停,後來回補後又去放空證券股,
                                                                               
因為當時量能都是2000多億,在美國出事的情況下量一定會縮掉,所以去空了大字
                                                                               
輩的證券股,果然又成功連續四支跌停,這當下我開始合理懷疑我該不會是股神吧
                                                                               
XDD,資金這時已經達到280萬。
                                                                               
                                                                               
可惜當人只要自我感覺良好時通常就是悲劇的開始,當空單回補完後發現IC設計股
                                                                               
也已經回檔了一段(那段時間很愛玩IC設計,因為當時真的很風光很會飆),就想要
                                                                               
搶反彈來個多空雙賺,沒想到進場後一路盤跌到年底,虧這期間指數還一度漲到了
                                                                               
9859點創新高,但都漲去傳產了,沒錯!!糗大了,押寶押錯之下資金很快就回落到
                                                                               
190萬。(該年整體報酬率220%)
                                                                               
                                                                               
(2008)
                                                                               
                                                                               
本來手上套牢了不少IC設計,不過這年的上半年受到馬小九的預期勝選行情激勵,
                                                                               
使得指數出現了像樣的反彈,一路反彈到五月時的9309點,這波反彈我主要操作的
                                                                               
還是IC設計,有雷凌(現已被連發科併掉)、聚績等等,而且畢竟在股海打滾多年了
                                                                               
,大概猜到馬小九就職之後有極大的可能利多出盡,所以當時股票大多都出在相對
                                                                               
高點,馬小九就職之後的下殺都有避開,這時資金上升至300萬。
                                                                               
                                                                               
之後大盤回檔到7000多點開始盤整,這回檔期間我小空一些股票賺了一點小錢,然
                                                                               
後看到大盤進入盤整想說低點到了,又開始多單進場,沒想到九月時大盤突然一根
                                                                               
長黑跌破盤整區間,我看情況不妙立即停損多單轉為放空,當時放空標的有連強、
                                                                               
力錡等等,隨後美國的雷曼宣布倒閉引爆了著名的金融海嘯,整個股市下殺的速度
                                                                               
極快,我也順勢空就對了!蒼井空!(當時股板閒聊文都是這些句子當開頭XDDD),跌
                                                                               
到5000多點時我的資金上升到400萬。
                                                                               
                                                                               
很快跌到5000多點,這時我想說應該跌夠了,來搶個反彈吧,又開始進場買IC設計
                                                                               
股,沒想到摸底失敗,指數一路狂洩到3955點,但這次我沒停損反而選擇沿路進場
                                                                               
攤平多單,當時的想法是覺得已經跌的夠多了不想停損,一堆股票已經腰斬不知道
                                                                               
幾次了,而且當時我所選擇的股票如原象、裙聯等,我認為體質不錯業績也不錯,
                                                                               
又都是買現股,因此也就死抱跟它拼了!!就這樣一路加碼到十成多單,後來崩跌到
                                                                               
3955點當天,我清算了一下手上持股市值,畢竟帳面上是套牢的,所以那時資金跌
                                                                               
到了300萬。
                                                                               
                                                                               
大盤來到3955點後落底開始反彈,這次運氣不錯,IC設計股成為了台股反彈第一棒
                                                                               
,我買的原象、裙聯等股票果然爭氣,反彈的速度驚人,也讓我的資金快速上升,
                                                                               
到年底時已經達到了445萬。(該年整體報酬率135%)
                                                                               
                                                                               
(2009)
                                                                               
                                                                               
這年一開頭我就下了重大決定,暫時把工作辭掉,並把上班四年的存款拿出了其中
                                                                               
100萬再投入股市中,開始當起職業投資人,這時我的資金在存款加入後為545萬。
                                                                               
                                                                               
2009年是多頭的好年,在美國強力救市下,指數扶搖直上,大盤呈現報復性噴出,
                                                                               
整個盤面可以說是群魔亂舞,擦鞋童若在當時進場恐怕都能當股神了......
                                                                               
                                                                               
一開始我是操作太陽能族群,整個族群都有買,不過主力是操作盒晶,基本上那時
                                                                               
候做多任何類股都是賺,賺多賺少而已,太陽能下車後我又去操作當時紅到不行的
                                                                               
觸控股羊華跟它的母公司盒機,也是一樣來回操作,再加上當時一直都是持股滿檔
                                                                               
火力全開,所以資金到了七月時已經上升到1100萬。
                                                                               
                                                                               
不過七月之後我變的很保守,最主要覺得指數已經漲很多了,畢竟才剛剛經歷過金
                                                                               
融海嘯的洗禮,難免會擔心沒事又突然來個崩盤,但沒想到一直到年底指數卻漲更
                                                                               
多,一路飆破8000點,真是人算不如天算,跌破我的眼鏡,也因為太保守,都只有
                                                                               
小進小出,所以七月之後一直到年底我就沒再賺到什麼,最終年底以資金1125萬作
                                                                               
結。(該年整體報酬率105%)
                                                                               
                                                                               
(2010)
                                                                               
                                                                               
2010年的上半年大盤陷入盤整,我也是賺賺賠賠損益兩平,一直到年中買到茂笛才
                                                                               
賺到一波,進入下半年大盤又開始大漲,一路漲到年底逼近9000點,在漲勢過程中
                                                                               
我陸續投機操作了F-安恩、科瘋、璨園等等電子股,也順利將資金推升到年底時達
                                                                               
1543萬。(該年整體報酬率37%)
                                                                               
                                                                               
文章寫到這裡,可以發現我歷年來幾乎都是操作中小型電子股為主,這是我比較擅
                                                                               
長的領域,不過從2011年之後,中小型電子股大多數都變的很沒力,可惜我沒有能
                                                                               
未卜先知出這一點,沒察覺到台股當時已經悄悄開始產生質變,市場資金逐步轉向
                                                                               
傳統定存龍頭股去了(例如中字輩台字輩的股票),而中小型電子股只剩一些蘋果概
                                                                               
念股還很給力,因而造成我接下來兩年的整體報酬率下滑了不少。
                                                                               
                                                                               
(2011)
                                                                               
                                                                               
2011年上半年一開始是買F-安恩,但卻看錯走勢賠了300萬!這次操作創下我進入股
                                                                               
市以後單股最大虧損,更慘的是停損完後隔天股價立即大幅反彈連連飆漲,殺在阿
                                                                               
呆谷讓我的心情完全跌落谷底好一陣子,不過幸好隨後買到毆買尬在一個月內賺了
                                                                               
500萬反敗為勝,感覺運氣又回升上來,當時的心情就像洗了三溫暖一樣......
                                                                               
                                                                               
但接下來整個下半年受到歐債危機以及美債降評的影響,完全沒任何收穫,都是小
                                                                               
賺小賠白忙一場,2011年對我來說算是相當悶,因為雖然有賺錢的操作,但賠錢的
                                                                               
次數也不少,導致最後整年以賺193萬收場,年底資金上升至1736萬。(該年整體報
                                                                               
酬率12.5%,近年新低)
                                                                               
                                                                               
(2012)
                                                                               
                                                                               
2012年我的表現也非常普通,前八個月靠著操作毆買尬、神惱獲利了500萬(當時還
                                                                               
想說要出運了),但想不到九月之後就變的諸事不順,買什麼賠什麼=.=,把前八個
                                                                               
月賺的錢吐了一半出去,造成全年獲利剩下257萬,年底以資金1993萬作收。(該年
                                                                               
整體報酬率14.8%)
                                                                               
                                                                               
(2013)
                                                                               
                                                                               
有鑑於過去兩年我的報酬率都低於15%有點低迷,想說該不會是我越來越弱了吧?所
                                                                               
以今年決定加入期權操作來開拓財源,想說試試看能不能多貼補一些績效,不過期
                                                                               
權畢竟我算是新手,所以初期並沒有玩太大。
                                                                               
                                                                               
截至過年封關為止,可能因為新手運吧,期權操作小小賺了一些,加上又小玩了一
                                                                               
下生技股,所以目前資金小幅上升至2035萬,但今年才剛過一個多月,整年的績效
                                                                               
變數還很大就是了。(該年暫時整體報酬率2.1%)
                                                                               
                                                                               
                                                                               
我的股海生涯大致上是這樣,回首來時路只覺得,這真是一條辛苦的路,而且壓力
                                                                               
也不小,但投資(投機)就是我的興趣,賺到錢時也能獲得成就感,因此也就一直堅
                                                                               
持下來了。
                                                                               
這篇回憶錄好像已經太長了,就此打住吧,感謝願意花時間看的人~~~


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                                                             2013.2.18

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